The
last 10 months (in fact the last 2 years) have been
"interesting", in the Chinese curse sort of way. I've been
working with 3 major companies and many smaller ones. The small ones have
been more interesting, more challenging, and more lucrative. The large
ones have been a real pain in the butt - and have been far from profitable
for various reasons I won't go into here.
The Internet and the Telephone businesses are merging. Some would say
that one is eating the other but opinions vary on which is doing the
eating. For almost 2 years ending early this year I was involved with a
startup Competitive Local Exchange Carrier (CLEC) as VP of Internet
Services. During this time I put together the portion of the
business plan dealing with Internet products, services, and infrastructure
design and implementation. I've spent numerous meetings in front of
potential vendors, customers, venture capitalists, associates, and even
competitors.
This has given me an incredible insight into what is happening in this
industry. In a previous life I spent 3 years as a telephone company
employee, installing phone switches, wiring businesses and houses, and
dealing with the general public as a phone repairman. During the early
part of the '90s I was involved with Canada's first commercial ISP as it
reacted to and then drove the changes in the Internet from its infancy as
an unknown research facility to its current identity as the World Wide
Web.
So what is happening you ask.
Here in Canada the most obvious thing happening in the
telecommunications industry is that prices for services are consistently
falling, and business services are being more and more offered to the
residential customer. The long distance prices have almost subsided to the
level they are in the US to the South; less than $0.10/minute with even some
flat rate offerings. High speed data lines have fallen in most
instances to the point where a T1 (1.5 Mbps) to the Internet can be had
for substantially less than $1000/month, and high speed shared access
lines such as ADSL and Cable Modem can be had for around $100/month (for
business use - residential is even less).
I think these price drops in data services have more to do with competition than they do
with anything else; competition engendered by the Internet. We're about to see similar drops in business phone
service prices as the Competitive Local Exchange Carriers (CLECs) finally get into the market in a big way. How
this will impact the consumer/residential prices is still up in the air.
The offering of traditional business services to the residential market,
things like voice mail and call forwarding for instance, looks like a
proactive attempt to increase the phone company's revenue by bundling so
that competition for the basic dial service won't as drastically impact
their net profit. It forces the new competition to offer similar bundles,
confusing and fragmenting the market. It also reflects the fact that the
SOHO (Small or Home Office) market is burgeoning.
The latest item in the competition arena is that the Canadian Radio
Television Commission (CRTC) has told the
cable companies they must offer their Internet connection services
wholesale to other ISPs at a minimum 25% discount. This puts it on a
similar footing to the ADSL offered by the phone companies and being resold by
ISPs. While this might not actually impact prices, it certainly will
impact the various service offerings you will be able to get for your
money.
The entry into the Internet business by the massive telephone companies
was looked on as the death knell of the small ISP. In fact there are more
and more small ISPs entering the market all the time. Many will ultimately
fail, some will be gobbled up and some will find their own comfortable
niche and endure for years. Some will combine telephone products with
Internet products, bundle in hand holding and installation, and make a
good business out of their specialties. The reason the small companies
will continue is simply that the big ones can't do it all. They can't move
fast enough for some of their customers, and they don't provide the right
mix of service and support for others.
The technology sector has been driving the economy in many ways for
quite a few years now. I don't see it slacking off at all, in fact I see
the pace picking up. There are still lots of potential customers out there
that need cost effective solutions to every day problems of getting and
keeping customers, building products, tracking progress, and dealing with
one another.
richard